In many product categories buying is slow. This is the first of several E-mail reports with ideas and information on when buying will improve.

Theory 1: We are in a recession. When the recession ends TV & cable stations and networks will have money to spend again.

Historically, when a recession starts TV advertising is disproportionally cut back versus other expenditures, but disproportionally comes roaring back when a recession begins to fade.

Time to recovery: 11 months

The Facts: since 1948, the US has gone through 9 recessions that have lasted an average of 11 months:

Duration of Post-War Recessions (National Bureau of Economic Research):

Peak Bottom Number of Months

Nov. 1948 Oct. 1949 11

July 1953 Aug. 1954 13

July 1957 April 1958 9

May 1960 Feb. 1961 9

Nov. 1969 Nov. 1970 12

Nov. 1973 March 1975 17

Jan. 1980 July 1980 7

July 1981 Nov. 1982 16

July 1990 March 1991 8

Average length of time 11

Your buyers will be back. Manufacturers who maintain their ad budgets during a recession have always come out way ahead of competitors who do not. Remember, the best reason for advertising in 2002:

2003

Josh Gordon

Broadcast Engineering

World Broadcast Engineering